I've been somewhat lazy in my musings on this particular blog so I'm changing things around. For the foreseeable future I am going to be publishing posts on various companies as I contemplate stock purchases. I plan to update the individual posts as my thoughts on them change. The reason for this is to have a notebook of sorts to record my thoughts on why or why not to purchase a particular issue. The reason to do this in blog form is that I will then have access to my thoughts at any place I may be.
Should I feel some strong desire to air my thoughts on our country's treatment finance or healthcare I will continue to do that as well.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Monday, October 26, 2009
Faith in Stupidity
Vivus Inc is a pharmaceutical company that is currently in phase 3 trial of a new weight loss drug. The results of the studies done so far are encouraging and everybody knows that a pill for weight loss is a gold mine. If it works as well as they are touting a few people may get very rich as the BMI of America decreases.
At the moment Vivus stock (VVUS) is up 16% in morning trading. That's not to be unexpected and it gives me a lot of hope. It confirms to me that there are still a lot of stupid speculative investors out there. For one thing the new drug that Vivus is marketing is nothing more than phenteramine and topiramate. Both of those drugs have been on the market for a while. If this new drug does become something of a money pipeline it will be for one of the big pharma companies after the rights are purchased from Vivus. Will Vivus make money off the deal? Sure they will, but not enough to cover the losses they have had over the past 9 years. The last time Vivus declared a profit for their shareholders was 2000. In the 9 years since then Vivus has had a combined net loss just shy of $100 million.
Even if this new drug is all it says it is, it will be years before it becomes profitable, once again for another company. If it does work we're all just going to be prescribing the equal doses of phenteramine and topiramate that will both be generic by the time this new wonder drug is approved for release by the FDA.
As long as there idiots out there throwing money at companies like Vivus there are deals to be found for long term investors. Certainly a great boost to the efficient market theory (don't even get me started on that).
At the moment Vivus stock (VVUS) is up 16% in morning trading. That's not to be unexpected and it gives me a lot of hope. It confirms to me that there are still a lot of stupid speculative investors out there. For one thing the new drug that Vivus is marketing is nothing more than phenteramine and topiramate. Both of those drugs have been on the market for a while. If this new drug does become something of a money pipeline it will be for one of the big pharma companies after the rights are purchased from Vivus. Will Vivus make money off the deal? Sure they will, but not enough to cover the losses they have had over the past 9 years. The last time Vivus declared a profit for their shareholders was 2000. In the 9 years since then Vivus has had a combined net loss just shy of $100 million.
Even if this new drug is all it says it is, it will be years before it becomes profitable, once again for another company. If it does work we're all just going to be prescribing the equal doses of phenteramine and topiramate that will both be generic by the time this new wonder drug is approved for release by the FDA.
As long as there idiots out there throwing money at companies like Vivus there are deals to be found for long term investors. Certainly a great boost to the efficient market theory (don't even get me started on that).
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Recovery or Bubble?
I'm starting to get depressed about this economic recovery. Overall I'm glad to see the country emerging from last fall, but the speed of the stock market upswing is unreal. I'm up over 60% this year and I feel somewhat like I did 2 years ago when nothing looked appealing. Investing has been easy for the past year. Throwing darts would produce a sizeable return, but now the bargains are drying up. I fear we may be heading into another bubble. At this point one of my greatest hopes is that this upswing might be sustained by the massive amount of money that will continue to flood the market as employers start to reintroduce the company match on retirement contributions.
As for now, I'm still bullish on Nike, Harley Davidson and I'm starting to take a closer look at Buffalo Wild Wings (you gotta admit the commercials are catchy), though I've never eaten there so I may have to do that before I lay down any investment money.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Perspectives On Life - View from a Resident
How's that for a title. I actually have some serious thoughts this morning that I would like to put down.
Recently I admitted one of my clinic patients to the hospital. She was a relatively new patient to me that I had seen one time previously (a couple of weeks earlier). After arriving to the hospital floor she went into Cardiac arrest and was transferred to the ICU.
It is unknown how much damage her cardiac arrest did to her brain function as she has been on the ventilator for almost a week and a half now, but she seemed to be coming around. She was able to respond when I talked with her each morning. Overall she had been improving. This morning I came in to round on her and found her extubated and unresponsive. She had passed away at 2 AM. I had not been called because the resident on the floor had been present for the code. It would have been nice to get a call around 6, but I understand.
So now my mixture of emotions is unlike any I have felt in my life. On the one hand I feel sorry for the daughters of my patient. She was doing so well just a month ago. She went downhill quick and as I look back I'm sure there are things that could have been done differently with the knowledge we now have, but in reality no mistakes were made in her care.
There is also a portion of me that feels relief at her passing. I'd like to say that this relief comes from the knowledge that she would most likely live out the rest of her days in a nursing home struggling with her constant pain issues, but a lot of my relief comes from the fact that she is not my responsibility every morning for the next 2 months. I no longer have to get to the hospital each morning to care for this critically ill patient. That seems very selfish to me, and it probably is, but that is the direct effect of her death on my life.
I wonder if my reaction would be different had I known the patient for a year instead of a month. Am I already that jaded that a critically ill patient is just 30 minutes of extra work per day? I don't believe that is the case, but I feel somewhat deceived by my feelings this morning.
Recently I admitted one of my clinic patients to the hospital. She was a relatively new patient to me that I had seen one time previously (a couple of weeks earlier). After arriving to the hospital floor she went into Cardiac arrest and was transferred to the ICU.
It is unknown how much damage her cardiac arrest did to her brain function as she has been on the ventilator for almost a week and a half now, but she seemed to be coming around. She was able to respond when I talked with her each morning. Overall she had been improving. This morning I came in to round on her and found her extubated and unresponsive. She had passed away at 2 AM. I had not been called because the resident on the floor had been present for the code. It would have been nice to get a call around 6, but I understand.
So now my mixture of emotions is unlike any I have felt in my life. On the one hand I feel sorry for the daughters of my patient. She was doing so well just a month ago. She went downhill quick and as I look back I'm sure there are things that could have been done differently with the knowledge we now have, but in reality no mistakes were made in her care.
There is also a portion of me that feels relief at her passing. I'd like to say that this relief comes from the knowledge that she would most likely live out the rest of her days in a nursing home struggling with her constant pain issues, but a lot of my relief comes from the fact that she is not my responsibility every morning for the next 2 months. I no longer have to get to the hospital each morning to care for this critically ill patient. That seems very selfish to me, and it probably is, but that is the direct effect of her death on my life.
I wonder if my reaction would be different had I known the patient for a year instead of a month. Am I already that jaded that a critically ill patient is just 30 minutes of extra work per day? I don't believe that is the case, but I feel somewhat deceived by my feelings this morning.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Back to the real world Bertier
I'm doing my best to be happy about the learning I'm experiencing since coming back from vacation. I've had exactly one day without one of my patients in the hospital since returning home. The patient I currently have in the hospital started feeling sick 2 weeks ago. Interestingly enough she had an appointment scheduled with me 1 month ago and an appointment with her nephrologist 6 weeks ago. She missed both of these appointments and now she's sitting in a bed in the hospital and will be there probably through the weekend at least.
I don't mind it when people get sick. It happens, but when patients repeatedly miss appointments and then get admitted to the hospital for things that could have been easily adjusted a few weeks previously it frustrates me. Interestingly enough this only happens to my patients who don't actually pay for their medical care.
You should care about this as well because the aforementioned patient is on government insurance (you know, the one Hillary thinks works so well). The government is currently footing the bill for her hospital stay that is thousands of dollars per day. The two appointments that she missed would have been billed under $400 together. She's probably going to get better either way, but one costs us as taxpayers quite a bit more money. The patient pays the same goose egg either way, though when my patient goes to the hospital she gets a taxpayer funded ride in a taxi with lights. She has to find her own ride to her appointments.
I don't know the solution, but free universal coverage will not improve this problem.
I don't mind it when people get sick. It happens, but when patients repeatedly miss appointments and then get admitted to the hospital for things that could have been easily adjusted a few weeks previously it frustrates me. Interestingly enough this only happens to my patients who don't actually pay for their medical care.
You should care about this as well because the aforementioned patient is on government insurance (you know, the one Hillary thinks works so well). The government is currently footing the bill for her hospital stay that is thousands of dollars per day. The two appointments that she missed would have been billed under $400 together. She's probably going to get better either way, but one costs us as taxpayers quite a bit more money. The patient pays the same goose egg either way, though when my patient goes to the hospital she gets a taxpayer funded ride in a taxi with lights. She has to find her own ride to her appointments.
I don't know the solution, but free universal coverage will not improve this problem.
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